A Comparison of the Smoothing Constant Values Among Exponential
Smoothing Methods in Commodity Prices Forecasting

A Comparison of the Smoothing Constant Values Among Exponential
Smoothing Methods in Commodity Prices Forecasting

forecasting, smoothing constant, exponential smoothing, B-DES, SES.

Commodity prices forecasting is one of the business functions to estimate future demand based on past data trend. This study
aims to implement a trial and error technique of the constant (alpha α) value in the exponential smoothing method. Dealing
with confusion that often researchers find in selecting an alpha (α) value among exponential smoothing families, which suits
characteristics of the investigated case. As selection of the constant value precisely contributes to reduce the forecasting
deviation. This paper used the alpha (α) value in the range 0,1 to 0,9 and utilized the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)
and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) as the parameter to know the grade of prediction. In data training, the authors used Single
Exponential Smoothing (SES) and Brown’s Double Exponential Smoothing (B-DES) as methods to compare the results of
prediction. It is addressed that forecasting with alpha (α) 0,1 is the most optimal values for Single Exponential Smoothing
(SES) in this case with margin error 0,00036 of MAPE and 16,84 of MAE

1Hazriani,
2Yuyun, 3Mashur Razak

Handayani University

29-12-2022

Fajar bagus W

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Indonesia

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