SIMULASI MODEL DISCRETE TIME MARKOV CHAIN (DTMC) SIA DAN SIAT PADA PENYEBARAN PENYAKIT HIV/AIDS
Dublin Core
Title
SIMULASI MODEL DISCRETE TIME MARKOV CHAIN (DTMC) SIA DAN SIAT PADA PENYEBARAN PENYAKIT HIV/AIDS
Subject
epidemic, DTMC, HIV, AIDS, treatment
Description
Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) is a virus that can attack human white blood cells, thus reducing
the immune system, and making sufferers susceptible to infection. Decreased immunity due to HIV can
cause a collection of symptoms of the disease, commonly called Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
(AIDS). Until now, no cure has been found for HIV/AIDS, but there is type of drug that can be used to
slow the development of the virus, namely antiretroviral (ARV). The purpose of this article is to model
the spread of HIV/AIDS using Discrete Time Markov Chain (DTMC) SIA (Susceptible-Infected-AIDS)
and SIAT (Susceptible-Infected-AIDS-Treatment) and then compare the two models through
simulation. The parameters used are rate of HIV transmission (β), rate of AIDS progression (δ), rate
of HIV treatment (α1), and rate of AIDS treatment (α2). The data used for calculating parameter
estimates are from Ministry of Health for cases 2014-2023. Simulations on the DTMC SIA epidemic
model show that the number of HIV individuals has decreased, while the number of AIDS individuals
has increased, reaching its peak with 24 individuals infected AIDS at t=1000. In contrast, DTMC SIAT
epidemic model with ARV shows that the number of HIV/AIDS individuals has decreased, while the
number of individuals receiving treatment has increased.
Keywords: epidemic, DTMC, HIV, AIDS, treatment
the immune system, and making sufferers susceptible to infection. Decreased immunity due to HIV can
cause a collection of symptoms of the disease, commonly called Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
(AIDS). Until now, no cure has been found for HIV/AIDS, but there is type of drug that can be used to
slow the development of the virus, namely antiretroviral (ARV). The purpose of this article is to model
the spread of HIV/AIDS using Discrete Time Markov Chain (DTMC) SIA (Susceptible-Infected-AIDS)
and SIAT (Susceptible-Infected-AIDS-Treatment) and then compare the two models through
simulation. The parameters used are rate of HIV transmission (β), rate of AIDS progression (δ), rate
of HIV treatment (α1), and rate of AIDS treatment (α2). The data used for calculating parameter
estimates are from Ministry of Health for cases 2014-2023. Simulations on the DTMC SIA epidemic
model show that the number of HIV individuals has decreased, while the number of AIDS individuals
has increased, reaching its peak with 24 individuals infected AIDS at t=1000. In contrast, DTMC SIAT
epidemic model with ARV shows that the number of HIV/AIDS individuals has decreased, while the
number of individuals receiving treatment has increased.
Keywords: epidemic, DTMC, HIV, AIDS, treatment
Creator
*Agnes Monica Puspitaningtyas, Respatiwulan, Isnandar Slamet
Date
2025
Contributor
Peri Irawan
Format
pdf
Language
english
Type
text
Files
Collection
Citation
*Agnes Monica Puspitaningtyas, Respatiwulan, Isnandar Slamet, “SIMULASI MODEL DISCRETE TIME MARKOV CHAIN (DTMC) SIA DAN SIAT PADA PENYEBARAN PENYAKIT HIV/AIDS,” Repository Horizon University Indonesia, accessed April 11, 2026, https://repository.horizon.ac.id/items/show/13180.