Analysis of injuries and deaths from road trafc accidents in Iran: bivariate regression approach
Dublin Core
Title
Analysis of injuries and deaths from road trafc accidents in Iran: bivariate regression approach
Subject
Road Trafc Accident, Death, Injury, Bivariate Regression
Description
Backgrounds: This study aims to estimate and compare the parameters of some univariate and bivariate count
models to identify the factors afecting the number of mortality and the number of injured in road accidents.
Methods: The accident data used in this study are related to Kermanshah province in march2020 to march2021.
Accidents areas were divided into 125 areas based on density characteristics. In a one-year period, 3090 accidents
happened on the suburban roads of Kermanshah province, which resulted in 398 deaths and 4805 injuries. Accident
information, including longitude and latitude of accident location, type of accident (fatal and injury), number of
deaths, number of injuries, accident type, the reason of the accident, and the kind of accident were all included as
population-level variables in the regression models. We investigated four frequently used bivariate count regression
models for accident data in the literature.
Results: In bivariate analysis, except for the DNM model, there is a reasonable decrease in the AIC measures of the
saturated model compared to the reduced model for the other three models. For the injury models, MSE is lowest,
respectively for DIBP (137.87), BNB (289.46), BP (412.36) and DNM (3640.89) models. These results are also established
for death models. But, in univariate analysis, only injury models almost present reasonable results.
Conclusions: Our fndings show that the IDBP model is better suitable for evaluating accident datasets than other
models. Motorcycle accidents, pedestrian accidents, left turn deviance, and dangerous speeding were all signifcant
variables in the IDBP death model, and these parameters were linked to accident mortality
models to identify the factors afecting the number of mortality and the number of injured in road accidents.
Methods: The accident data used in this study are related to Kermanshah province in march2020 to march2021.
Accidents areas were divided into 125 areas based on density characteristics. In a one-year period, 3090 accidents
happened on the suburban roads of Kermanshah province, which resulted in 398 deaths and 4805 injuries. Accident
information, including longitude and latitude of accident location, type of accident (fatal and injury), number of
deaths, number of injuries, accident type, the reason of the accident, and the kind of accident were all included as
population-level variables in the regression models. We investigated four frequently used bivariate count regression
models for accident data in the literature.
Results: In bivariate analysis, except for the DNM model, there is a reasonable decrease in the AIC measures of the
saturated model compared to the reduced model for the other three models. For the injury models, MSE is lowest,
respectively for DIBP (137.87), BNB (289.46), BP (412.36) and DNM (3640.89) models. These results are also established
for death models. But, in univariate analysis, only injury models almost present reasonable results.
Conclusions: Our fndings show that the IDBP model is better suitable for evaluating accident datasets than other
models. Motorcycle accidents, pedestrian accidents, left turn deviance, and dangerous speeding were all signifcant
variables in the IDBP death model, and these parameters were linked to accident mortality
Creator
Soodeh Shahsavari, Ali Mohammadi, Shayan Mostafaei, Ehsan Zereshki, Seyyed Mohammad Tabatabaei, Mohsen Zhaleh, Meisam Shahsavari and Frouzan Zeini
Publisher
BMC Emergency Medicine
Date
(2022) 22:130
Contributor
Fajar bagus W
Format
PDF
Language
English
Type
Text
Files
Collection
Citation
Soodeh Shahsavari, Ali Mohammadi, Shayan Mostafaei, Ehsan Zereshki, Seyyed Mohammad Tabatabaei, Mohsen Zhaleh, Meisam Shahsavari and Frouzan Zeini, “Analysis of injuries and deaths from road trafc accidents in Iran: bivariate regression approach,” Repository Horizon University Indonesia, accessed November 21, 2024, https://repository.horizon.ac.id/items/show/4122.