Simulasi Model Epidemi Discrete Time Markov Chain (DTMC) SEIR dan SVEIR pada Penyebaran Penyakit Monkeypox

Dublin Core

Title

Simulasi Model Epidemi Discrete Time Markov Chain (DTMC) SEIR dan SVEIR pada Penyebaran Penyakit Monkeypox

Subject

epidemic, monkeypox, vaccination, DTMC, SVEIR, SEIR

Description

Monkeypox is a contagious disease caused by a virus originating from animals and can be transmitted
to humans. Transmission occurs through direct contact with the blood, fluids, or skin of infected animals
or individuals. This study aims to model the spread of monkeypox using the DTMC SEIR and DTMC
SVEIR models, and to compare the simulation results of both models. The DTMC SEIR and DTMC
SVEIR models consist of transition probabilities that describe the change of individuals from state i to
state j. The parameters used include vaccination rate (ρ), vaccination failure rate (ω), transmission
rate (β), infection rate (σ), and recovery rate (γ). The results of the DTMC SVEIR simulation indicate
that the epidemic ends more quickly, specifically on day 316, because vaccination provides additional
immunity, allowing vaccinated individuals (V) to avoid the spread of monkeypox. In contrast, the
DTMC SEIR model shows that the epidemic lasts longer, concluding on day 607.
Keywords: epidemic, monkeypox, vaccination, DTMC, SVEIR, SEIR

Creator

Elvin Agustiyan Nugroho*

, Respatiwulan, Yuliana Susanti

Date

2025

Contributor

Peri Irawan

Format

pdf

Language

english

Type

text

Files

Citation

Elvin Agustiyan Nugroho* , Respatiwulan, Yuliana Susanti, “Simulasi Model Epidemi Discrete Time Markov Chain (DTMC) SEIR dan SVEIR pada Penyebaran Penyakit Monkeypox,” Repository Horizon University Indonesia, accessed April 11, 2026, https://repository.horizon.ac.id/items/show/13192.